Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario Percent orig. R0 Percent increase from current R0 Effective R0
0 22.40% 0.00% 0.94
1 35.30% 57.60% 1.49
2 48.30% 115.60% 2.03
3 61.20% 173.20% 2.58
4 74.10% 230.80% 3.12
5 87.10% 288.80% 3.67
6 100.00% 346.40% 4.21

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts


Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 0.94
  • % of original R0: 22.4
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.49
  • % of original R0: 35.3
  • % Increase from current: 57.6

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.03
  • % of original R0: 48.3
  • % Increase from current: 115.6

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.58
  • % of original R0: 61.2
  • % Increase from current: 173.2

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.12
  • % of original R0: 74.1
  • % Increase from current: 230.8

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.67
  • % of original R0: 87.1
  • % Increase from current: 288.8

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 4.21
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 346.4